Fig. 2 shows the total energy consumption of the BAU and biofuel cases. The total energy consumption in 2030 is twice compared to that in 2015. Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 show the gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively. The diesel consumption is more than twice compared to that of gasoline in 2015. The imbalance between gasoline and diesel is one of the energy issues in Thailand that affects healthy operation of oil refineries. The biofuel case in which the “Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP) 2015-2036” target in 2030 (E20B10) is fully achieved, the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption increases from the BAU case.

Fig. 2. 
Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Thailand.

Fig. 3. 
Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Thailand.

Fig. 4. 
Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Thailand.

As much as 10 Mtoe of ethanol is required in 2030 for the biofuel case. The government’s effort to increase raw materials production for ethanol is on-going. The projection of current biodiesel production ability shows that sufficient production capacity is expected if raw material supply is secured (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).

The “Energy Efficiency Plan (EEP) 2015-2036” requires that energy consumption in the transport sector is reduced to 32 Mtoe in 2030. To meet this target, 17.9 Mtoe of energy consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 5). The introduction of biofuels (E20B10) planned in AEDP can replace 1.9 Mtoe of oil consumption. Moreover, promotion of additional CNG utilization (assume that 10%-the current CNG utilization share-of total road energy consumption is replaced by CNG) can replace 2.8 Mtoe of oil consumption. Reduction of oil consumption by fuel economy improvement of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are assumed and can replace 3.2 Mtoe of oil consumption. The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system such as road infrastructure development and traffic flow management, including electric toll collection (ETC), vehicle information, and communication system (VICS). Fig. 6 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 5. 
Reduction target of oil consumption in Thailand.

Fig. 6. 
Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Thailand.

As discussed in 3.1.1, one of the energy issues in Thailand is the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (diesel>>gasoline). Here, an alternative case is proposed in which lower ethanol blending (E15) and same level of biodiesel utilization (B10) are assumed to relieve the imbalance. The level of CNG utilization is the same as in the reduction case. Also, the same level of FE improvement is adopted. Fig. 7 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 7. 
Contributions by each measure to the alternative case in Thailand.

Based on the investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below:

• • Import dependency of oil and gas has been increasing.
• • Imbalance between diesel and gasoline consumption (diesel>>gasoline) is an issue and reduction of diesel should be prioritized.
• • Securing a high level of biodiesel production is required with enough feedstock to reduce diesel consumption. Promotion of hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) will be necessary.
• • An integrated approach of measures such as efficiency improvement of traffic system and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.
• • A new funding system to support more biofuel utilization is required since the current status of relying on the OIL FUND system will not be sustainable.

Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below.

• • Excess introduction of ethanol under AEDP deteriorates the balance between gasoline and diesel consumption levels since the diesel consumption is far greater than that of gasoline. Biodiesel utilization should be prioritized.

Fig. 8 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases. The total energy consumption in 2030 is more than twice compared to that in 2015. Fig. 9 and Fig. 10 show the levels of gasoline/diesel consumption and ethanol/biodiesel consumption of both cases, respectively. The level of gasoline consumption is more than twice compared to that of diesel in 2015. The imbalance between gasoline and diesel is one of the energy issues in Indonesia. The biofuel case in which the “Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 20, 2014” target in 2030 (E20B30) is fully achieved results in the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption being the same level of the BAU case. Domestic refining capacity is below demand and Indonesia relies on petroleum products import today (ERIA, 2017).

Fig. 8. 
Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Indonesia.

Fig. 9. 
Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Indonesia.

Fig. 10. 
Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Indonesia.

Currently, ethanol is not used in Indonesia. According to the biofuel blending mandate of “Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No.20, 2014,” biodiesel as well as ethanol are planned to be used. Required volume of ethanol is larger than that of biodiesel when the biofuel blending mandate is fully achieved in 2030 for the biofuel case. Ethanol as well as biodiesel introductions are necessary to mitigate the energy issue in the road transport sector, but securing enough ethanol to fulfil the blending mandate domestically will be difficult; the government needs to make concrete plans for ethanol utilization (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2).

The “National Energy Policy (KEN)” requires the reduction of energy consumption in the transport sector by 40.8 Mtoe in 2030 compared to the BAU case in this study (Fig. 11). Biofuels and CNG introduction planned in “General Planning of National Energy (RUEN)” can replace 6.6 Mtoe and 8.4 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively. Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by fuel economy improvement of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are considered and which can replace 13.4 Mtoe of oil consumption. The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system such as road infrastructure development and traffic flow management such as ETC and VICS. Fig. 12 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 11. 
Reduction target of oil consumption in Indonesia.

Fig. 12. 
Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Indonesia.

The imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption is one of the primary energy issues in Indonesia as discussed in 3.2.1. Introduction of ethanol blending for gasoline with the use of biodiesel is a key way to mitigate the issue. Here, an alternative case is proposed in which ethanol of E10 and lowered usage of biodiesel (B15) are assumed to relieve the imbalance. CNG utilization amount is also reduced since the amount of CNG planned in RUEN may be too high and set to be the same as current CNG utilization level in Thailand (i.e. 10% of current total road energy consumption). Otherwise, the same levels of FE improvement of new vehicles are adopted as discussed in 3.2.2. Fig. 13 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 13. 
Contributions by each measure to the alternative case in Indonesia.

Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below:

• • Import dependency of oil and gas has been increasing. Lack of domestic refining capacity compared to demand exists.
• • Imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (gasoline>>diesel) is an issue and reduction of gasoline should be prioritized.
• • Electric motorcycle is one of the effective measures to reduce gasoline consumption since large part of gasoline is consumed by motorcycle.
• • Utilization of domestic gas for public transportation, including taxis, and fixed route logistic trucks are additional effective measures.
• • The introduction of ethanol by securing its production/supply is required to reduce gasoline consumption. The promotion of HVO will be necessary.
• • An integrated approach of measures, such as efficiency improvement of traffic system and traffic flow management, is required to meet the oil reduction target.
• • Development of a funding system to support ethanol is necessary by encouraging cellulosic ethanol; the promotion of HVO in addition to fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) is necessary as well.

Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below.

• • The level of gasoline consumption is higher than that of diesel; thus, reduction of gasoline consumption should be prioritized. In accordance with KEN/RUEN direction, utilization of gas in the transportation sector and introduction of ethanol for gasoline blend together with biodiesel are the key issues. Institutional design and fiscal support for them must be considered.

Fig. 14 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases. Here, increased use of biofuels and energy conservation are ready considered. The total energy consumption level in 2030 is twice the level in 2015. Fig. 15 and Fig. 16 show the gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively. The diesel fuel consumption level is lower than twice compared to that of gasoline in 2030, which is acceptable. Domestic refining capacity is below demand and the Philippines rely on petroleum products import - the same situation as Indonesia.

Fig. 14. 
Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in the Philippines.

Fig. 15. 
Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in the Philippines.

Fig. 16. 
Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in the Philippines.

Currently, ethanol-blended gasoline of E10 is introduced nationwide by partially using imported ethanol since domestic production capacity is not sufficient. In the biofuel case (E20B20), the required amount of biodiesel will be larger than that of ethanol in 2030. Achievement of the target in “National Biofuels Program (NBP) 2013-2030” will be difficult since raw material in the Philippines is limited (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2). The government needs to take make concrete plans for biofuel introduction.

The Low Carbon Scenario (LCS) in the “Philippines Energy Plan (PEP)” requires that oil consumption in the transport sector should be as low as 6 Mtoe in 2030. To meet this target, 12.2 Mtoe of oil consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 17). Biofuels (E20B20) and CNG/LPG/EV introduction planned in PEP can replace 2.6 Mtoe and 2.9 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively. Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by the improvement of new vehicles’ fuel economy (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are assumed and which can replace 1.4 Mtoe of oil consumption. The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system and traffic flow management. Fig. 18 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 17. 
Reduction target of oil consumption in the Philippines.

Fig. 18. 
Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in the Philippines.

As discussed in 3.3.1, the diesel fuel consumption level is lower than twice compared to that of gasoline in 2030, which is acceptable. On the other hand, securing an amount of biodiesel that is sufficient to meet the PEP target may be difficult since raw material production in the Philippines is limited. Taking this into account, an alternative case is proposed in which biofuel introduction of E10 B10-half of the NBP target (E20B20)-are assumed to maintain similar level of current gasoline/diesel consumption ratio. CNG utilization amount is kept the same as in the Reduction case. Also, same levels of FE improvement of new vehicles are adopted. Fig.19. shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 19. 
Contributions by each measure for the alternative case in the Philippines.

Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below:

• • Import dependency of oil has been increasing. Lack of domestic refining capacity compared to demand exists.
• • An imbalance between diesel and gasoline consumption levels (diesel>gasoline) exists and reduction of diesel should be prioritized.
• • In order to promote the production of biodiesel, expanding feedstock beyond coconuts is necessary. Additionally, the implementation of HVO and FAME is necessary.
• • Gas usage might be limited to the public transportation with minimum investment for CNG infrastructure.
• • An integrated approach of measures such as improving the efficiency of the traffic system and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.
• • The development of a system to support more biofuel implementation including trading and importing raw materials or products is required.

Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below.

• • As far as the current PEP is concerned, introducing biofuels will be difficult since raw material production is limited.

Fig. 20 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases. The total energy consumption level in 2030 is double that in 2015. Fig. 21 and Fig. 22 show the gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively. The gasoline consumption level is more than double that of diesel in 2015. The imbalance between gasoline and diesel is one of the primary energy issues in Malaysia. The imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption is greater in 2030 than in 2015. Domestic refining capacity is about to meet demand of diesel but Malaysia relies on gasoline import (from Singapore) (ERIA, 2017).

Fig. 20. 
Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Malaysia.

Fig. 21. 
Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Malaysia.

Fig. 22. 
Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Malaysia.

Currently, ethanol is not used in Malaysia. According to the “11th Malaysian Plan (2016-2020),” only biodiesel (B15) is promoted and utilization of ethanol is not considered. However, if only biodiesel is promoted and its blending ratio for diesel increases, then the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption will become worse in the future. Here, ethanol utilization (E10) is also assumed in the biofuel case; its required amount in 2030 is larger than that of biodiesel. The introduction of ethanol and biodiesel is necessary to mitigate energy issues in the road transport sector, but securing enough ethanol to fulfil blending requirements domestically will be difficult; the government must make concrete plans for ethanol utilization (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2). Otherwise, the projection of biodiesel production shows the capability to meet the government biofuel plan.

Since there is no specific reduction target of oil reduction by the government, tentative oil reduction target is set to be 35% - equal to the CO₂ reduction commitment of COP21, Paris agreement - compared to BAU (The Government of Malaysia, 2016) is assumed. To meet this target, 13.1 Mtoe of oil consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 23).

Fig. 23. 
Reduction target of oil consumption in Malaysia.

The introduction of biofuels (E0B15) as planned in the “11th Malaysian Plan (2016-2020)” and CNG utilization (5% of current total road energy consumption) can replace 0.6 Mtoe and 1.0 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively. Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by improving the fuel economy of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are considered, which can replace 2.8 Mtoe of oil consumption. The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of traffic systems such as road infrastructure development and traffic flow management, including ETC and VICS. Fig. 24 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 24. 
Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Malaysia.

As discussed in 3.4.1, one of the primary energy issues in Malaysia is the imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (diesel<<gasoline). The introduction of ethanol-blended gasoline and biodiesel is key in mitigating this issue. Taking this into account, an alternative case is proposed in which ethanol blending (E5) and lowered biodiesel usage (B10) are assumed to relieve the imbalance. The CNG utilization amount is the same as in the BAU case. Also, the same levels of new vehicles’ FE improvement and traffic system efficiency improvement are adopted. Fig. 25 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 25. 
Contributions by each measure to the alternative case in Malaysia.

Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below:

• • Import dependency of oil has been increasing.
• • The imbalance between gasoline and diesel consumption (gasoline>>diesel) is an issue and the reduction of gasoline should be prioritized.
• • The domestic supply of biodiesel is sufficient. Implementation of HVO in addition to FAMNE is necessary.
• • Increased use of domestic gas for the public transportation, including taxis, is required.
• • Securing feedstock for ethanol is required; the development of cellulosic ethanol is an option to reduce gasoline consumption.
• • An integrated approach of measures such as improving the efficiency of traffic systems and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.
• • The development of a funding system that promotes ethanol utilization is required.

Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below:

• • Promotion of Energy Efficient Vehicle (EEV) by setting clear oil reduction target and efficiency improvement of traffic system is required to conserve energy. Ethanol introduction besides biodiesel must be considered since an imbalance between gasoline and diesel fuel consumption exists. However, lack of domestic ethanol production is an issue. It is necessary to expand use of domestic gas as alternative fuel.

Fig. 26 shows the total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases. The total energy consumption level in 2030 is three times higher than that in 2015. Fig. 27 and Fig. 28 show gasoline/diesel consumption levels and ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of both cases, respectively. The gasoline and diesel consumption levels are rather balanced. However, gasoline consumption is expected to be dominant in the future due to increasing number of motorcycles. Domestic refining capacity is below demand as there is only one refinery today and relies on the import of petroleum products as well (ERIA, 2017).

Fig. 26. 
Total energy consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Vietnam.

Fig. 27. 
Gasoline/diesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Vietnam.

Fig. 28. 
Ethanol/biodiesel consumption levels of the BAU and biofuel cases in Vietnam.

Ethanol-blended gasoline of E5 is introduced in some cities. The implementation timing is slightly behind the “Biofuel Roadmap” schedule since domestic ethanol production capacity is not sufficient (ERIA, 2017). Currently, biodiesel is not used in Vietnam. Securing biodiesel production will be difficult due to the lack of raw material. However, both of ethanol and biodiesel use (E10B5) is assumed in the biofuel case with slower implementation timing compared to “Biofuel Roadmap.” Achievement of biofuel introduction target will be rather difficult since raw material production is limited, especially biodiesel (see ERIA (2017) or Table 2). The government must make concrete plans to increase domestic biofuel production.

Since there is no specific reduction target of oil reduction set by the government, the tentative oil reduction target is set to be 20%-equal to CO₂ reduction commitment of COP21, Paris agreement-compared to BAU (The Government of Viet Nam, 2016) is assumed. To meet this target, 7.1 Mtoe of oil consumption has to be reduced compared to the BAU case of this study (Fig. 29).

Fig. 29. 
Reduction target of oil consumption levels in Vietnam.

The introduction of biofuels (E10B5) as planned in “Biofuel Roadmap” and CNG utilization (1% of current total road energy consumption) can replace 1.8 Mtoe and 0.1 Mtoe of oil consumption, respectively. Moreover, reduction of oil consumption by improving the fuel economy of new vehicles (assume 2% every year improvement as reasonable level) are considered, which can replace 3.9 Mtoe of oil consumption. The remaining part of the required reduction amount is considered to be achieved by improving the efficiency of the traffic system, such as road infrastructure development, and traffic flow management, such as ETC and VICS. Fig. 30 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 30. 
Contributions by each measure to the reduction case in Vietnam.

As discussed in 3.5.1, gasoline and diesel consumption levels are rather balanced in Vietnam. On the other hand, as far as biofuels are concerned, insufficient biofuels feedstock supply ability is one of the concerns and the implementation timing of ethanol is slightly behind the “Biofuel Roadmap” schedule. Taking these into account, an alternative case is proposed in which less ethanol blending (E5) and the same level of biodiesel utilization in the reduction case (B5) are assumed. The level of CNG utilization has been increased by considering domestically produced natural gas resources in Vietnam and set to be 5% of current total road energy consumption. The same levels of new vehicles’ FE improvement and traffic system efficiency improvement are assumed. Fig. 31 shows the contributions to the reduction target by each measure.

Fig. 31. 
Contributions by each measure to the alternative case in Vietnam.

Based on this investigation, energy issues and possible measures are summarized below:

• • Import dependency of oil has been increasing. There is a lack of domestic refining capacity compared to demand.
• • Gasoline and diesel consumption levels are balanced. Gasoline consumption will increase due to an increasing number of motorcycles in the future.
• • Utilization of domestic gas for public transportation, including taxis, is required.
• • The introduction of ethanol and biodiesel introductions are required to reduce petroleum dependency. Securing feedstock or products especially for biodiesel is key to meeting the standards of the “Biofuel Roadmap.” Production of ethanol (from cassava) might have a possibility to increase.
• • The development of a system that supports biofuel implementation fiscally and with regards to trade (import raw material or products) is required.
• • Integrated approach of measures such as improving the efficiency of traffic systems and traffic flow management is required to meet the oil reduction target.

Current energy policies are also evaluated, and the results are summarized below:

• • Clear oil reduction target and incentive schemes for more fuel-efficient vehicles, along with Energy Efficiency Labelling, are required to conserve energy. Concrete plans for the introduction of biofuel introduction with measures to increase domestic raw materials production is required. Import of biodiesel is necessary since domestic production is quite difficult.